Saturday, June 25, 2011

The French political cycle. Literally

I wrote earlier that the criticism of mondialization was happening both on the far left(e.g. Montebourg, Melenchon) and on the extreme right(e.g. well there's only one party on the extreme right). It's not quite new, but the hemicycle is becoming a full cycle. Some evidence in a report about the extreme right in France by the CEVIPOF:

interrogés par l’IFOP du 16 au 17 septembre 2010, 3 % seulement des Français se situent à l’extrême droite de l’échiquier politique. Seuls 34 % des sympathisants du FN se positionnent à l’extrême droite, 28 % choisissant le « ni gauche, ni droite », 16 % la gauche, 12 % la droite et 9 % le centre
I still think that there is a high possibility that the high numbers of the National Front come from two things: first, there is a huge protest-vote pool in France right now. Second, the National Front has a brand, and can be used as a focal point. If you want to do a protest-vote, you want it to be meaningful and so protest-voters should try to coordinate on one party. The FN is probably more focal than any extreme-left party, all the more now that the charismatic Besancenot disappeared and that Melenchon is not really the person to rally like-minded people together.

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