Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Polls and prediction markets for the French election

Following on yesterday's post, you can also use inTrade data with the prices for a Hollande or Sarkozy victory, and it could be interesting to compare the polls and the prediction markets.

Data from inTrade is available on their site for csv download and I also put a dataset with dates, closing prices and volumes here.

If we look at the poll numbers over the last two months, we have this graph, which shows that the numbers are not varying that much, although Hollande is on a downward trend:
The prediction markets show an increasing probability for Hollande to win. I think (not sure) that the vertical axis can be interpreted as a proba of victory for each candidate, as priced by inTrade

Monday, April 23, 2012

2nd round of French elections

Here is a dataset with (most of?) the head-to-head polls made between Sarkozy and Hollande. You have the polling institute, the sample size, the date and the poll numbers.

For comparison, here is the dataset for Royal v. Sarkozy 2007, without sample sizes.

(edit: here is a dataset for the first round 2012)

Hopefully, those datasets can be helpful to some people...

I took the data from Wikipedia, and there might be better datasets out there.

To play with the data you can start with the R code provided by Arthur Charpentier. Here are the graphs generated with the 2012 polls only, with smoothing by splines and 95% confidence intervals.

Hollande's numbers

Sarkozy's numbers