Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Polls and prediction markets for the French election

Following on yesterday's post, you can also use inTrade data with the prices for a Hollande or Sarkozy victory, and it could be interesting to compare the polls and the prediction markets.

Data from inTrade is available on their site for csv download and I also put a dataset with dates, closing prices and volumes here.

If we look at the poll numbers over the last two months, we have this graph, which shows that the numbers are not varying that much, although Hollande is on a downward trend:
The prediction markets show an increasing probability for Hollande to win. I think (not sure) that the vertical axis can be interpreted as a proba of victory for each candidate, as priced by inTrade

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