We won't have any more data from polls, so I updated the graph and added a couple of bells and whistles. I use the loess function, and weigh the data by sample size and how recent the poll is (for the latter, following Nate Silver, I use a weight of (1/2)^[(today-poll day)/30] . For the sample size, I put a concave function of pollsize/max(pollsize)) .
The downward trend for Hollande is pretty clear, and a rough forecast base on recent polls has him at 51.5% on Sunday.
We can do similar exercises with the vote transfers and intrade data, again, with a huge handful of salt. Sarkozy opened the gap in the Le Pen and Bayrou vote transfers.
|Hollande closing price in red, Sarkozy's in blue.|
|Blue is transfer to Sarkozy, red to Hollande, grey is abstention, null and blank|