Friday, May 4, 2012

Last election graphs?

Update: Using the great Ceteris-Paribus (who has probably done the thing more precisely than I did), we can include a rough indicator of pollster quality using the results of the first round (we could also use this post from Ceteris-Paribus to include an indicator from 2007, but not all the 2012 pollsters were there). I just added in the weight the fraction pollster_error/min(pollster_error). Results: 

We won't have any more data from polls, so I updated the graph and added a couple of bells and whistles. I use the loess function, and weigh the data by sample size and how recent the poll is (for the latter, following Nate Silver, I use a weight of (1/2)^[(today-poll day)/30] . For the sample size, I put a concave function of pollsize/max(pollsize)) .

The downward trend for Hollande is pretty clear, and a rough forecast base on recent polls has him at 51.5% on Sunday. 

We can do similar exercises with the vote transfers and intrade data, again, with a huge handful of salt. Sarkozy opened the gap in the Le Pen and Bayrou vote transfers.

Hollande closing price in red, Sarkozy's in blue.
Blue is transfer to Sarkozy, red to Hollande, grey is abstention, null and blank

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